Insider Edge 227 - Rate Cuts and Spring Market Outlook

Markets are signaling towards the potential for 3 rate cuts from now until Spring of 2026. There are meetings September 17, October 29 and December 10th to round out the year.

It’s also looking like another flat real estate market as we head into the fall. Usually as families get back into the routine of the school year you begin to see market activity increase as the last flurry of buyers and sellers look to make their move before Christmas. But so far in the first week of September we are trending less sales than both August and September of last year. Although its a bit too early to tell if the fall market will pick up it is safe to say we won’t be seeing any immediate rebound to buyer activity.

With the trade war rhetoric subsiding and potential for 3 interest rate cuts we could see the jolt in the market a lot of prospective sellers are itching for, but how soon remains in question. 3 cuts of 25 basis points would see hundreds of dollars per month in savings for the average mortgage offering real relief in affordability. That combined with some economic blue skies on the horizon could bring sales back to 10 year averages or slightly above, but with years of lagging prices and investors continuing to run for the hills I don’t imagine much, if any, elevation in prices even if we dip our toes into a sellers market.

Here's how the economists predictions are currently shaking out:

• BMO is calling for 75bp in rate cuts before Spring 2026
  

• RBC view: More cautious—recent reports suggests limited additional easing and even the possibility of holding at 2.75% through 2026
  

• TD Economics sees two more 25 bp cuts in 2025, lowering the policy rate from 2.75% to ~2.25%.
  

• Scotiabank is more cautious; in some forecasts they expect cuts, but delayed or smaller than others expect. They warn that uncertainty (tariffs, global conditions) could continue to push back cuts

The Fraser Valley real estate market continued to cool in August 2025, with sales slowing and prices softening across most communities. Buyers are firmly in the driver’s seat right now, with more inventory, more time to make decisions, and opportunities to negotiate. Here’s a quick breakdown of what’s happening across our local neighborhoods.

Fraser Valley Overall

• Sales: 931 (down 22% from July, and 13% lower than August 2024)

• Active Listings: 10,445 (up 21% year-over-year)

• Sales-to-Active Ratio: 9% → a strong buyer’s market

• Benchmark Prices:

  • Detached: $1,436,800 (↓ 5.7% year-over-year)

  • Townhomes: $807,800 (↓ 4.5%)

  • Condos: $514,100 (↓ 5.9%)

Abbotsford

• Detached: $1,171,900 (↓ 4.1% year-over-year)

• Townhomes: $645,700 (↓ 2.8%)

• Condos: $421,800 (↓ 4.8%)

• Sales activity was mixed, with townhomes showing stronger demand than detached or condos. Inventory is up nearly 50% for condos, giving buyers plenty of choice.

Mission

• Detached: $1,025,400 (↓ 2.0%)

• Townhomes: $656,500 (↓ 4.1%)

• Condos: $434,700 (↓ 5.9%)

• Detached home sales were up 52% year-over-year, but prices still slipped. Condo and townhouse sales remain relatively quiet.

White Rock / South Surrey

• Detached: $1,795,500 (↓ 8.7%)

• Townhomes: $921,200 (↓ 5.0%)

• Condos: $588,600 (↓ 5.7%)

• Detached sales dropped 40% compared to last year. Prices across all property types continue to adjust, especially in the higher-end detached market.

Langley

• Detached: $1,590,800 (↓ 3.4%)

• Townhomes: $848,100 (↓ 4.1%)

• Condos: $589,500 (↓ 3.6%)

• Condo sales fell sharply (down 44% year-over-year), while townhomes held steadier. Detached prices remain above $1.5M but are trending downward.

North Delta

• Detached: $1,321,300 (↓ 10.3%)

• Townhomes: $933,000 (↓ 2.5%)

• Condos: $540,300 (↓ 6.1%)

• Detached homes saw one of the largest price drops in the Fraser Valley. Inventory is up nearly 60%, offering more leverage to buyers.

Surrey (Overall)

• Detached: $1,541,800 (↓ 6.4%)

• Townhomes: $830,700 (↓ 4.8%)

• Condos: $500,800 (↓ 7.6%)

• Activity slowed across all property types. Detached sales fell 22%, while condo prices recorded the sharpest decline.

Surrey by area:

• Central Surrey: Detached $1,451,500 (↓ 5.8%)

• Cloverdale: Detached $1,440,800 (↓ 4.6%)

• North Surrey: Detached $1,423,100 (↓ 5.8%), condos ↓ 10.1% year-over-year

What This Means for Buyers & Sellers

The Fraser Valley remains a buyer’s market. Homes are taking longer to sell (averages: 38 days for detached, 32 days for townhomes, 41 days for condos), and price trends are softening across the board.

• For buyers: This is a good opportunity to negotiate and take time before making decisions.

• For sellers: Pricing competitively is key, as buyers have more choices and leverage.

Final Thoughts

With sales at 36% below the 10-year average and benchmark prices down across all communities, the Fraser Valley housing market is adjusting. For anyone considering buying or selling, staying informed on local neighborhood stats is crucial.

If you’d like tailored advice about buying or selling in Langley, Surrey, or surrounding Fraser Valley communities, feel free to reach out—I’d be happy to help.