Population trends are one of the biggest indicators of real estate values in the long term. If populations are rising, prices will go up, if populations are declining prices will go down. Q1 of 2025 marked the first net population decline in British Columbia since the late 90s. This really is the current headline. The first net out flow of residents can be felt in the rental and real estate markets.

I have a client that had their 2 bedroom Langley condo rented for $2300, and currently can’t find anyone for $2100 per month. A notable and very real drop in prices in the last year.

Home prices aren’t coming out unscathed either, and although also likely affected by the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties the reality is they are down some 5-10% year over year depending on product and location.

But what is the story moving forward? Aside from economic and geopolitical instabilities and strife, our population projections will be the single biggest indicator on the rental and real estate markets in the coming years.

And the long term picture still appears to be population growth. The Q1 2025 population decline was primarily driven by a large outflow of Non permanent Residents (Student Visas and Work Permits) which was fueled by a clamping down on predatory student visa programs taking advantage of pop up colleges. But 2024 saw a net population growth of over 50,000 people to Metro Vancouver

Moving forward net migration policy is aimed at around 55,000 new residents each year to Metro Vancouver. This is a slow down compared to the absurd post covid surge, but slightly above historical norms.

By best baseline projections the Metro Vancouver population is set to grow from 2.71 Million currently, to over 3.3 Million by 2030. This is still very substantial population growth.

The bottom line

I am a little surprised after going through these numbers and the future immigration policy decisions slated for the future. It would appear that although we hit a bit of a lull, Canadas immigration policy as a whole is still full speed ahead.

In the short term 2025-2027 interest rate fluctuations and geopolitical movements are going to see prices and demand having brief stints of life like trying to kick a flat soccer ball down the street. But ultimately nothing special is going to happen, either up or down.

In the medium term 2027-2030 we may see a different picture. Because unless housing completions increase dramatically—well above historic averages—Metro Vancouver will enter 2030 with a larger population, a deeper supply shortage, and upward pressure on prices.

The Fraser Valley real estate market is continuing its seasonal cooldown, offering great opportunities for buyers — but it’s clear that pricing is the key to successful sales right now.

Market Overview

📉 Sales: 1,190 homes sold in July, down slightly from June and 3.3% lower than July 2024
🏡 Active Listings: 10,650 properties — nearly 50% above the 10-year average
💰 Benchmark Prices:

• Detached: $1,451,100 (-5.1% YoY)

• Townhomes: $814,900 (-4.0% YoY)

• Condos: $519,300 (-5.8% YoY)

👉 The sales-to-active listings ratio is just 11%, keeping us firmly in a buyer’s market. Sellers need to price realistically, stage homes well, and be prepared for longer selling timelines — average time on market is 38 days.

Quick Market Snapshots by Community

🏡 Langley

• Detached: $1,598,600 (-2.2% YoY)

• Townhouse: $852,300 (-3.0% YoY)

• Apartment: $590,900 (-4.4% YoY)
  📊 Detached homes held steady, while condo prices saw the largest drop.

🏘️ Surrey (All Areas Combined)

• Detached: $1,561,700 (-6.1% YoY)

• Townhouse: $838,700 (-4.4% YoY)

• Apartment: $511,600 (-6.0% YoY)
  📉 Prices across all housing types have softened. Still a lot of inventory for buyers to choose from.

🌊 White Rock / South Surrey

• Detached: $1,837,300 (-7.2% YoY)

• Townhouse: $928,200 (-4.3% YoY)

• Apartment: $584,400 (-8.0% YoY)
  🏖️ Luxury market is adjusting — strong price declines here offer buying opportunities.

🛠️ Abbotsford

• Detached: $1,180,200 (-4.4% YoY)

• Townhouse: $653,400 (-2.0% YoY)

• Apartment: $424,400 (-5.3% YoY)
  📈 Detached homes are holding value better than condos. Still relatively affordable across the board.

🌲 Mission

• Detached: $1,033,100 (-1.5% YoY)

• Townhouse: $663,000 (-3.3% YoY)

• Apartment: $441,500 (-5.4% YoY)
  📍 One of the more stable markets in the Valley right now.

🌆 North Delta

• Detached: $1,333,600 (-9.5% YoY)

• Townhouse: $932,900 (-5.5% YoY)

• Apartment: $555,800 (-4.8% YoY)
  📉 North Delta saw the largest YoY drop in detached home prices in the Fraser Valley.

What This Means for Buyers & Sellers

🔑 Buyers: You have the upper hand. More selection, lower prices, and sellers motivated to negotiate.

📉 Sellers: It’s time to be strategic. Price accurately, present your home well, and be patient — properties are taking longer to sell.

📞 Thinking of buying or selling in Langley or the Fraser Valley? I’d love to help you navigate today’s market with confidence. Reach out anytime for expert, no-pressure advice.

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